The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is continually striving to strengthen the process of reviewing issues relating to exchange arrangements, restrictions, and markets. At the core of one of its responsibilities is to issuing periodic reviews on the trends and developments.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the staff report on the revised and extended methodologies for exchange rate assessments by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)1. The IMF Executive Board recently discussed the report in an informal Board seminar. The report is part of a broader effort to extend and deepen the IMF's framework for assessing exchange rate issues in line with its ongoing work to strengthen Fund surveillance of the global economic and financial system.
The methodologies for assessing exchange rates have been applied beyond advanced countries to cover about 20 emerging market countries using a variety of approaches.2 The three complementary methodologies presented in the staff report provide a multilateral approach to help gauge the consistency of current account balances and real effective exchange rates with their underlying fundamentals. Combined with additional country-specific information, the methodologies help IMF staff reach informed judgments about medium-term real exchange rates and current account balances, weighing the relative importance of a number of economic factors affecting these key variables. Details of the three methodologies at: IMF Press Release Strengthening Framework for exchange rate surveillance: IMF Strengthening Framework for Exchange Rate Surveillance
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The Pound is closing in on a two-year high against the USD en route to crossing the mythical barrier of 2 USD. Many traders and economists believe that it is only a matter of time before this threshold is breached- that it is a question of when and not if it will happen. This month, the Bank of England raised short-term interest rates to 5%, bridging the gap with US rates and eroding one of the last pillars that is propping up the USD. Once interest rates converge, many short term investors will likely shift funds out of US capital markets, and the USD will adjust to more closely reflect economic fundamentals.
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